Well This is Going Swimmingly

Remember back when everyone was mad at Netanyahu? That was because just as Joe Biden was in Israel trying to get peace talks started, Israel announced it was going to build a whole bunch of new settlement housing in East Jerusalem, in a neighborhood called Ramat Shlomo.

As part of the newest round of proximity talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, Israel annouced yesterday that it would not build the approved Ramat Shlomo neighborhood for at least two years. There, are you happy now?

Israel had pledged not to build in the Ramat Shlomo neighborhood of East Jerusalem for two years and that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas vowed that he would work against incitement of any sort.

But then today, one day later, oops.

Just two days after resuming peace talks with Israel, the Palestinian Authority has reported to the United States what it termed the first violation of negotiation terms, a senior Palestinian official said Monday.

Yasser Abed Rabbo said the construction of 14 housing units for Jewish settlers in an East Jerusalem neighbourhood, as reported by the Israeli Peace Now pressure group, violated the terms of new talks.

About the first round of talks, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said:

Erekat said that during their meeting, Abbas gave Mitchell a letter outlining the Palestinian Authority's position on proximity talks and the issues it wants to discuss. Abbas would head the Palestinian negotiating team himself, Erekat said, adding that the Palestinians view the talks as aimed at "The end of the occupation and creation of a Palestinian state alongside the State of Israel along the 1967 borders."

And Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak echoed his sentiments at a separate event:

"Without an agreement, we will be subject to international isolation, and we will suffer a fate similar to that of Belfast or Bosnia, or a gradual transition from a paradigm of two states for two peoples to one of one state for two peoples, and some people will try to label us as similar to South Africa. That's why we must act," Barak said. If both sides are willing to make brave decisions, he said, "it will be possible to get to direct negotiations and a breakthrough toward an agreement."

So it looks like Barak is super duper ready to make a two-state solution with the Palestinians, but clearly the rest of the government is not on board. Ah, well, no matter. I'm sure Netanyahu and Lieberman and all those guys will enjoy being a Jewish minority in, oh, 20 years.

Abbas: Obama, Mitchell Useless, Settlements Not So Bad

In an interview with Saudi-owned newspaper Asharq Alawsat, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas hints that he was making more headway with Ehud Olmert and Tzipi Livni than he is with Obama and Mitchell and that in reality, Obama insisting on a settlement freeze puts Abbas in an awkward position. He can't very well publicly say that a settlement freeze is not necessary in order to continue negotiations, but he tells Asharq Alawsat's journalists that in previous negotiations with Olmert, he was prepared to ignore the issue, at least temporarily.

And that's not all. This article is filled with fascinating tidbits about the insides of such a complicated negotiation. Here are some important parts and my take on them.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] Would it have been possible to reach an agreement with Olmert alone?
[President Abbas] I believe it would have been possible that I go up a little, and he comes down a little. It was possible to find a solution. He said that he would give me 100 percent.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] This is important and fundamental?
[President Abbas] He said 100 percent. He would take from this side, and I would take from that side. He presented maps to me. The maps included that he would take the settlements blocs (in the West Bank) in exchange for territories in the north, west, and south of the West Bank, in addition to territories to the east of Gaza.

So basically this is a territory swap he's talking about. Israel gets to keep the settlements they've built already and Palestine gets land that is not currently being used by anyone.

Wait. Not used by anyone? Don't we mean used by Palestinian residents of Israel? No.

[President Abbas] In a distant region (from the triangle region), because I explained from the beginning that I would not accept anyone (from the Palestinians of Israel). We were doing well. God is my witness, he was all right; he said to me: You will not find anyone other than me; and I said to him: But you will find someone other than me.

I guess Palestine has enough people. This brings a whole new angle to the argument about the Right of Return.

[President Abbas] Obama laid down the condition of halting the settlements completely. What could I say to him? Should I say this is too much? Moreover, halting the settlements is the second article of the Road Map, and it is something I want. At the end they blame me, and they say that the condition of halting the settlements was not on offer during the negotiations with Olmert. Bear in mind that at every meeting with Olmert the issue of the settlements was discussed.

And regarding Abbas' repeated threats to step down as president and his newest announcement that he will not seek re-election:

[Asharq Al-Awsat] Is not this decision tantamount to running away from the battle?
[President Abbas] Is the issue merely one of clinging to the chair? The chair does not matter to me.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] This is despite the fact that there is no alternative to you at this stage?
[President Abbas] It is wrong to say that there is no alternative. How can you say that there are 8 million Palestinians, but there is no alternative?
(Erekat [chief Palestinian negotiator with Israel]: I believe that the president did not say I do not want to be a candidate because he was scheming, maneuvering, or fed up).
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Or he might be sulking as he used to sulk in the past?
[President Abbas] No it is not sulking.

Hilarious. In what other situation would you find a journalist accusing a president of sulking during a private interview?

Moving along, Abbas says that Iran is standing in the way of a reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas (the former rules the West Bank and that latter is in charge of the Gaza strip).

[President Abbas] Brother, they saw the Egyptian document before we saw it, they agreed to it, and then we signed, but they refused to sign. Why, because there are regional sides that do not want this.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] What are these sides?
[President Abbas] Iran is the first one. This is indisputable.

And here Abbas idealizes a bit. I think the situations he refers to have improved in the past several years, but naturally he is overemphasizing his success at reform.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] What can a Palestinian State offer?
[President Abbas] It can offer a democratic state that has equality and transparency. I challenge anyone to say that there was a single case of corruption in the Palestinian Authority in the past two or three years. I mean a single case of corruption.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Does this include political detentions?
[President Abbas] Or a single political detention.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Does this mean that all the detentions are not political?
[President Abbas] The detentions are carried out in cases of weapons, security, money smuggling, or money laundering. I challenge anyone to prove otherwise.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] What about the issue of women?
[President Abbas] Women are equal to men. On every occasion we emphasize the need to advance women. The proof of this is that the Legislative Council has allocated a quota for women, whether the others like it or not; one of every three members of the Legislative Councils has to be a woman. This also applies to the local councils.

There is much too much in this interview for me to paraphrase everything, so I urge you to read the whole thing if you have an interest.

Hamas Again Advertises for New PR Rep

This is nothing but a cry for help, just as this was.

"Hamas will keep rejecting the occupation and refuse to recognize the legitimacy of the Zionist entity. Priority will remain building and developing the resistance," said Meshal, who lives in Syria along with other Hamas leaders in exile.

The "Zionist entity." Does he have any idea how out of touch that makes him sound? This is a sci-fi series that has outlived its potential. If the Israeli-Palestinian conflict were a reality TV show, this would be the part where the contestants are urged to crawl through a tunnel of worms to win a phone call home.

If sounding like C-3P0 was the way to win hearts and minds, Meshal would have this thing handled.

Meanwhile, in the West Bank:

Abbas has said repeatedly he will not resume negotiations without a complete Israeli settlement freeze in the West Bank and east Jerusalem - areas claimed by the Palestinians for a future state. The Obama administration initially demanded such a freeze as well, but relented when Netanyahu resisted.

Netanyahu instead agreed to a 10-month slowdown in West Bank construction. But Netanyahu insists he will not relinquish any part of Jerusalem. The Palestinians seek the city's eastern sector as their future capital.

If we boil this whole thing down to a fictional conversation between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his counterpart Mahmoud Abbas, you get this:
Abbas:[folds arms across chest and turns his back]
Netanyahu:Come on, talk to me. Please.
Abbas: No. You're just going to keep building more settlements and taking all our land. You're trying to force us into bantustans.
Netanyahu: [gasps] I would never do that to you. Now, come on, turn around and talk to me.
Abbas:[turns around] Well ok. Hey, what's that sound [settlement building resumes behind him]?
Netanyahu: What sound? I don't hear any sound. [settlement builder gives Netanyahu the thumbs up that he's done] Nevermind, I think we're all done here.
Abbas: [turns around and screams like Homer Simpson.]

This is Netanyahu's "realities on the ground" expansion plan.

Lola Does Livni

I'm getting a little bit excited about Tzipi Livni. So far she's doing well at creatively and compassionately pursuing peace while not upsetting certain right-wingers who have stalemated peace efforts in the past. She is still in the process of setting up her government so her attitude might not be permanent, but we can hope.

In Haaretz today:

"I do not believe in far-reaching proposals and an attempt to expedite matters, especially in light of the political situation," Livni, the prime minister-designate, told [French Foreign Minister] Kouchner on Sunday.

She was referring to Olmert's peace plan that offers Israeli withdrawal from East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, small areas of territory, the latter of which belongs to Syria.

About Palestinian disapproval of the offer:

Livni's explanation was a criticism of Olmert. "Abu Mazen [Abbas] in his present political situation cannot accept such an agreement," she said. "The political situation in Israel also does not allow it to be signed."

Livni also argued that blaming the Palestinians for refusing to accept Olmert's offer does no good. "We can say this is their fault - but what will that do?" she said. "We had the same thing after Camp David in 2000 and look where that got us."

Once upon a time I asked for a politician that is more concerned with actually accomplishing things than with being right. Could she be the one? The bigger person. The one to stop pointing fingers.

Palestinian Infighting Now Infamous

Al Jazeera writer Ramzy Baroud questions whether the idea of "Palestinian Unity" has any meaning anymore in his article Palestinian Unity: Goal or Mantra?

Palestinian disunity, and political -- if not, geopolitical -- fragmentation is eroding the Palestinian cause more than all Israeli efforts, walls and military incursions combined. The painful-to-watch televised bickering between representatives of various Palestinian factions has led to confusion among traditionally pro-Palestinian groups worldwide. The political objectives -- once agreed upon as "constants" -- and symbols that once united Palestinians everywhere are now wide open for extreme interpretation.

In fact, "respecting the sanctity of Palestinian blood", which for long served as the lowest possible denominator agreed on by every Palestinian grouping, has been violated many times in recent months and years; too many times to count. Repeating the slogan is, at this point, an empty mantra, joining the numerous other mantras that have for long served as a sedative for the hapless masses, whether Arabs, Palestinians or both.

I read Al Jazeera and Israel's Haaretz news everyday, and it's not often that they both say the same thing, but when they do, I find it bears repeating. Further underscoring my commentation of Abbas' temper tantrum the PA again uses the media to issue veiled threats to Hamas.

Haaretz writes:

RAMALLAH - The Palestinian Authority must be ready to use force against Hamas in Gaza "to reunify the homeland," said the head of PA forces in the West Bank, Gen. Dhiab al-Ali (Abu al-Fatah), considered the Palestinian chief of staff.

"If Gaza remains mutinous, the Palestinian Authority will have no choice but to use force against it," Ali said in a recent interview with Haaretz at his Ramallah offices.

Ali said the PA has not ruled out using force if the territory remains in Hamas' hands.

"There haven't yet been consultations with the Israelis on the issue," Ali said. "We hope we won't need that option - for us it's the last choice for unifying the homeland - but we must be prepared to implement it."

No senior PA official close to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has ever expressed such views to the media, and especially not shortly before a Fatah delegation is set to attend talks in Cairo on a possible detente with Hamas.

The mention of Israel backing up Fatah forces in a Gaza takeover is both heartbreakingly optimistic and a confirmation of a recent quip by Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

Firstly, Fatah doesn't have forces, per se. As I wrote back on August 9th, the U.S. is funding the creation of Palestinian security forces, but the first battalion of 500 soldiers has just finished training. This is hardly a force one goes off conquering non-contiguous pieces of land with.

Secondly, Hamas released a statement July 29, saying:

"Now the Zionists are protecting you," Hamas said in a statement addressed to security forces in the West Bank. "You know that once the protection of the Zionists is over, people will enter your headquarters and kick you out," it said.

"You must know we are not acting against you now in the West Bank because ... we know the Zionists will immediately back you."

Abbas and his cabinet do not seem concerned with countering this statement. In fact, it seems they rather enjoy the world knowing they are under Israel's protection, as the faction most cooperative with Israel's agenda. The problem is, they have secured Israel's cooperation at the expense of their peoples' needs and wants, which is perhaps what causes the infighting Baroud mentioned above.

Palestinian President Throws Temper Tantrum

I've decided it's time for an update of my continuing coverage of Gilad Shalit. This update was inspired by a July 29 message sent by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and subsequently leaked to the press. The message was sent through Hussein al-Sheikh, head of PA civil affairs, to Israeli General Gadi Shamni.

It was a warning to Israel that if they released certain prisoners in their custody loyal to Hamas, that Abbas would dismantle the Palestinian Authority. Not simply resign, but dismantle the actual government.

Let's put aside the audacity and childishness of that warning for a minute and move on to the particulars involved here.

Hamas has held IDF soldier Gilad Shalit in Gaza for over two years now. After he was captured, Israel captured 64 members of the democratically elected Hamas-majority government, including eight cabinet members, twenty legislative council members, and the mayor of Qalqilyah and his deputy.

Just try for a minute to imagine what that would look like in any other country. What the international response would be. How fast it would get resolved. Just visualize.

40 of those elected officials are still in Israeli prisons.

Israel continues to hold them as a bargaining chip to exchange for Shalit. Hamas has since demanded their release, along with about a thousand other Israeli prisoners, some of which have been accused or convicted of murder.

Meanwhile, in June of 2007, Hamas took over Gaza, which was basically a declaration of war against the Fatah-majority government that remained in the West Bank. Since then Abbas and Israel have teamed up to destroy Hamas' infrastructure and avenues of funding. However, as I have mentioned, neither the PA nor Israel has managed to replace the community services they destroyed in the process. Numerous charities, medical centers, summer camps for kids, after school programs, and the like have been shut down in this process.

But back to that whole Shalit issue. Haaretz says:

According to an Israeli source well-versed in what is happening in the PA, publication of Abbas' threat to dismantle the PA if Israel releases the Hamas parliamentarians is liable to discredit him massively in the eyes of many Palestinians.

In addition, the source noted, this threat creates another obstacle to Israel's efforts to reach an agreement for Shalit's release.

This suggests first that this "statement" could be a Hamas-engineered ploy and second, that the journalist who wrote those very words has no qualms with causing Abbas to lose face.

But most interesting about this passage is the last sentence. This seems the most logical direction to take this development, but I don't think it's true. While the public is led this way and that and Shalit's family is dragged along, I don't think Hamas has ever had any intention of releasing Shalit. You may ask why they abducted him if not to trade for their own people, but instead of looking at what has happened since his abduction, look at what hasn't happened.

Hamas has fired missiles into Israel's cities and towns almost every day in the last two years. Gilad Shalit may be the only factor compelling enough to prevent a sweeping IDF operation in Gaza.

He's not a bargaining chip, he's an insurance policy.

And his worldwide fame at this point makes him more valuable than any nameless Israeli who dies as a result of those missiles, and certainly more valuable than any Palestinian politician.

Including Mahmoud Abbas. Israel and Uncle Sam are perfectly capable of installing a more agreeable PA president just as they installed this one.

And in response to the possibility that Abbas' temper tantrum could have been engineered by Hamas, the Haaretz writer adds:

Since his election as PA president in January 2005, Abbas has repeatedly threatened to resign - sometimes due to lack of progress in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, or due to internal power struggles within his Fatah movement. However, he has never yet carried out his threat.

In related news, Hamas and Fatah continue to antagonize each other like children, leading Hamas to retort most recently to Fatah that they are only safe and still in power in the West Bank because they enjoy Israel's protection.

Haaretz says, in a separate article:

Abbas' security forces have detained at least 150 Hamas supporters in the West Bank in response to a sweep in the Gaza Strip, where Hamas seized nearly 200 Fatah sympathizers after a bomb blast killed five Hamas militants and a girl on Friday. Hamas blamed the bombing on Fatah, which denies involvement.

These sorts of mysterious bombings are common here. Both sides accuse the other. It reminds me again and again of an ancient and well-proven warfare tactic: when you have two enemies, you don't fight them both, you get them to fight each other.

The US did it in Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan twenty years ago. When we wanted to destabilize Iraq, we gave weapons to the Kurds. When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, we gave weapons to the Afghanis. When Iran and Iraq went to war, we sold weapons to both of them and then sent the profits to the Contras in Nicaragua.

Let's look at the big picture, folks.

Tzipi Snatches Dangled Carrot

Last week, I wrote about Israel's hotly debated leadership. Warhawk Shaul Mofaz and moderate Tzipi Livni are still the two frontrunners for leadership of the Kadima party, and most likely Israel.

But waaa-aaay-yay down at the bottom of that article I wrote about the proverbial dangled carrot in this scenario. The PA had released a statement saying that if Mofaz were elected, the peace process would halt. They even stated that for the current peace plans to proceed, Tzipi has to win.

Oh and then they asked Tzipi to release a few hundred Palestinian prisoners as a show of good faith. I personally was in favor of this move because, just as the article states, such a move would garner the PA some favor among the people, which would give them more power to actually accomplish stuff. But I really did not except Tzipi, and Israel, to come through on it.

And then they did.

According to Haaretz, Israel has approved the release of 200 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom "have blood on their hands," whatever that means.

And Tzipi says:

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the leading Kadima candidate to succeed Olmert, said the release showed Palestinians that dialogue, not violence, achieved the best results.

Closure of Charities: Details Revealed

This past week, I've written about the IDF closing West Bank Charities and an orphanage in Hebron and many of you asked me why. I couldn't answer because the contributing information was given by one-sided sources.

Yesterday, Haaretz published an article that discusses the reasons the organizations were shut down, the possible repercussions for all involved, and the limitations of these types of tactics. I will do my best to sum up here.

The only information I had before this article about why the IDF shut the charities down was that they were somehow related to Hamas, either being funded by them or were funding them. This article reveals that the strongest connection they have to Hamas is probably secondhand:

Legally, the technology incubator is also criminalized by the fact that it takes money from an organization that aids charities run by Hamas. An educational institution in Hebron that helps underprivileged children via money from an United Arab Emirates charity fund, and the Hamas summer camp which that fund also aids, both have become criminal institutions.

In other words, if you accept donations from a fund that also aids Hamas, your organization is now illegal. And this is what has happened to most of the 36 organizations that Defense Minister Ehud Barak declared illegal on May 26.

Next, let's pretend that Hamas does not have roots all the way into the core of the Palestinian territories and that this economic blacklisting will actually stop them. Where will the Palestinian people then receive these services?

For those who believe Hamas' development and expansion can be delayed, finding the money source is an important means...Hamas' civil activity has no substitute in the Palestinian Authority. The small clinic in Gaza, the summer camps for children, the food distribution stations in the refugee camps, the enrichment classes for youth ¬ the PA and the municipalities are having difficulty offering alternatives. Hamas' civil activity often takes place in private homes and even in schools administered by the PA Education Ministry.

In effect, by hindering Hamas' power to offer constructive assistance to its people, Israel is causing the realization of its own fears. Without its "civil activity" Hamas is no more than a bunch of rogue revolutionaries.

And I wonder if it's better to prove this or to make its opposite true.

In any relationship, there must be compromise. And a prime example of this type of compromise is the struggle between being right and being happy. You cannot have both all the time. Perhaps it would be better for the couple if Israel would stop trying to prove that Hamas is up to no good, and start encouraging Hamas in its non-violence enterprises.

As for the limitations of this tactic, Haaretz says:

Israel has an even more difficult problem ¬ its ability to supervise the cash flow to these associations is much more limited. Monies transferred from Arab countries to the territories go through an Israeli clearinghouse by means of three banks, and each time the name of one of the organizations appears, the computer spits out the data, but it is very easy to rename the organizations or transfer money in cash.

So, realistically, this move has made a lot of people angry with Israel but the actual benefits could be minimal.

Haaretz offers an improvement to the plan:

Banning these organizations does have declarative importance and it does open a front against Hamas, but it appears that practically speaking, it will be difficult to realize...In order to succeed, Israel needs to cooperate closely with the PA, which can at least supervise the movement of money in banks or establish a "clean fund" that receives money from permitted sources. However, the PA is yet to establish such a fund.

But Israel can no more cooperate with the PA than the PA can cooperate with Hamas:

The PA does randomly strike at Hamas institutions in the West Bank (in Gaza it cannot do anything), but it also cannot appear to be damaging charities and welfare groups, especially when reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah is on the agenda.

These three entities are all weakening each other. And if they succeed in breaking each other, nobody will benefit. They will each be the subjects of someone else's occupation- perhaps Jordan and Egypt again. Or perhaps the United States.

Blair Puts Hamas' Words on Menu, Delicious

Photo by blhphotography.

"Palestine," a shaky distinction to begin with, is becoming even further divided. With the West Bank and Gaza being separated from each other by miles of Israeli checkpoints and being run by two different governments, it's becoming even harder to call them one country.

Middle East envoy and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair dangled a carrot to Hamas on Monday. He told the press, "It's worth repeating on behalf of the international community that if the situation could only change there, there would also be an enormous desire to help people in Gaza too, not just people in the West Bank." It's widely known that to receive aid and to stop getting the cold shoulder from the West, Hamas must do two things: renounce violence, and recognize Israel.

The West Bank, run by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, has experienced some economic growth due in part to making friends with the West and recognizing Israel's right to exist. The same cannot be said for Hamas-led Gaza, which split completely from the West Bank last June when Hamas took control of the presidential compound in Gaza.

I think it's gone too far for Hamas to do a 180 without some way to save face. Recognizing Israel's right to exist at this point is tantamount to eating their words, a fate worse than death. With accomplished and talented people like Tony Blair and Nobel Peace Prize winner former president Carter working on this, they should be able to think of a creative way for all sides to maintain some dignity.