Israel Wags the Dog

LobeLog has yet another interesting take on Sarah Palin's candidacy, this time prompted by her meeting with AIPAC.

Jim Lobe, the Washington Bureau Chief of IPS, writes:

MSNBC and the Jewish Telegraphic Agency (JTA) are reporting that Gov. Palin met this afternoon with the board of directors of the America Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and Sen. Joe Lieberman to, in the words of one McCain campaign official cited by MSNBC, put “the American Jewish community at ease over her understanding of US-Middle East relations.” It’s worth noting that Palin, who has obviously been completely off-limits to reporters since she was rolled out as McCain’s running-mate in Dayton Friday, stiffed a reception in her honor sponsored by none other than Phyllis Schlafly a couple hours later. (One wonders what other lobbies have tried to arrange a meeting with Palin in the last 96 hours and with what success.)

Obviously the first lobby Palin meets with after the announcement of her candidacy would be AIPAC, which is usually referred to more casually as "The Jewish Lobby."

One of Lobe's commenters summed up my own reaction quite succinctly:

The Israeli-U.S. relationship has evolved into a classic case of the tail wagging the dog.

The Delicate Balance: Israel, Palestine, and the US

The US and Israel are rubbing each other the wrong way, evidenced by two reports issued today, one from each country. The US is likely to release a report compiled by retired general James Jones that is critical of Israeli policies in the West Bank. When word of this report got out, Israel released a statement complaining about the US intervening too often in minor Palestinian matters.

News about the US report says:

Jones was appointed by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice following the Annapolis peace conference last November. His assignment was to draft a strategic plan to facilitate stabilization of the security situation, as a necessary accompaniment to Israeli-Palestinian final-status negotiations. In this context, he assessed the PA security forces in the West Bank, whose reform is being overseen by another American general, Keith Dayton. Jones has visited the region several times and met with senior Israeli government officials and army officers. According to both Israeli and American sources, the envoy's conclusions about Israel are scathing.

And then Israel said:

Senior officials in the U.S. State Department, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, have repeatedly complained to Israel recently over relatively minor Palestinian issues that it would have ignored until a few months ago, Israeli officials say.

Complaints about settlement construction or army operations that kill Palestinian civilians have always been the norm. But Israeli officials are worried by the State Department's new tendency to intervene in a much broader range of issues.

One such case was:

Washington's demand that 10 Gazan Fulbright scholars be allowed to enter Israel for visa interviews at the U.S. consulate in East Jerusalem. However, Israel refused, saying they had been blacklisted for security reasons.

Rice personally intervened. In addition, an Israeli official said, the consulate leaked the story to the New York Times to embarrass Israel.

This could test the bond between the two countries, not just on these issues, but on the fundamental policies of Israel itself. American supporters of Palestinian issues have long been pressing their government to stop condoning Israeli tactics, but if the US continues intervening at Palestinians' behest, it may not be allowed to intervene at all.

The U.S. is Confusing

A page refresh of this issue...

First, this:

A U.S. intelligence report released last month, however, concluded Tehran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in late 2003 and had not resumed it since.

And then this:

In a Saturday statement, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said time has come for Tehran to choose between confrontation and meeting Western demands over its enrichment program.

"We hope the Iranian people understand that their leaders need to make a choice between cooperation, which would bring benefits to all, and confrontation, which can only lead to further isolation," said McCormack.

Dude, your rhetoric is as thin as water.

The US government is starting to seem like those "Old West" facades they have at tourist places. When you look around the side of the building, you see that the front is held up by two boards.

Or, in other words, nobody's home.

Iraq Asserts Adolescent Independence

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has finally succeeded in getting president Bush to agree on setting a timetable for troop withdrawal.

The AP says:

The two leaders agreed that improvements in security should allow for the negotiations "to include a general time horizon for meeting aspirational goals, such as the resumption of Iraqi security control in their cities and provinces and the further reduction of U.S. combat forces from Iraq," the White House said.

Bush repeatedly has vetoed legislation approved by Congress setting deadlines for American troop cutbacks.

It's like when your teenage children keep pushing the limits in their natural drive to become independent.

And then there's a surprise move where they help each other save face:

Friday's White House statement was intentionally vague and did not specify what kind of timelines were envisioned. That allows Iraqi officials, who are facing elections in the fall, to argue they are not beholden to Washington or willing to tolerate a permanent military presence in Iraq. For Bush, it points the way toward a legal framework for keeping American troops in Iraq after a U.N. mandate expires on Dec. 31.

Bush ought to be proud.

But in the Middle East, al-Maliki is not exactly seen this way.

Al Jazeera says:

There's a rumor going around that Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is feeling his oats, flexing his muscle, and displaying a newfound confidence that has allowed him to challenge the American occupation of Iraq. As a result -- so the story goes -- Maliki has suspended talks with the United States on a long-term security agreement, and has spoken out in favor of a timetable for withdrawing U.S. forces.

But that's mostly wrong. From the start of his reign as prime minister in 2006, Maliki has been a weak and ineffectual leader. His political base is exceedingly narrow, and his Dawa Party is virtually nonexistent as a political force in Iraq today.

It seems that standing up to Bush will not be enough to gain him respect in his own part of the world. He's dealing with pressure from all sides:

Both Maliki and ISCI want to maintain U.S. support for the army and police, which have grown astronomically, from 337,000 in 2007, to 556,000 in 2008. So they can't afford to alienate Washington. At the same time, Maliki and ISCI are responding to strong pressure from Iran, which wants the Americans out of Iraq, and from Iraqi nationalists, who feel the same way. (Of course, the nationalists also want Iran to get out of Iraq.) That is not a formula for political strength.

Phase III of Operation Sandbox Launched

Photo by photoluna25.

Iran's oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari spoke at the OPEC conference in Madrid today. He basically said that if attacked, Iran would respond fiercely and that such an attack would drive oil prices higher than anyone could imagine. But he also said:

Nozari, however, said Tehran would not cut oil deliveries and would continue supplying the market even if struck by Israel or the United States.

Um...is it just me or is he saying, "Go ahead and attack us, we'll be rich!" Or maybe he's saying, "Thousands and thousands of our people will die, but those of us who make the decisions can wipe our asses with gold."

AP's George Jahn says:

Tehran is under U.N., U.S. and European sanctions because it has defied U.N. Security Council demands to suspend its uranium enrichment program. But with oil supplies tight and prices at unprecedented levels, the energy industry remains tempted by the possibilities of investing in Iran, OPEC's second largest oil producer and No. 2 in terms of the world's natural gas reserves.

Is it possible that Bush, Olmert, and Ahmadinejad are all having a big threesome? If Iran could, as Nozari claims, continue to ship oil while at war, can you imagine the amount of money that bring in? I don't think we even have numbers that go that high. The energy industry powers the US government. It is so far fetched that the US would go to war just to get oil and make money?

Oh wait....

So, perhaps this indirect announcement is Phase III in a twelve step plan to justify another Middle East campaign.

I can imagine how this was planned:
(Scene: a dark room with lush surroundings, a group of men hold drinks and cigars)

Ahmadinejad: So I'll act like a real asshole. Say bad stuff about Jews and the US and freedom.

Bush's handlers: And we'll say, "Whoa, this guy is dangerous! We should keep an eye on him."

Ahmadinejad: And then I'll start messing around with nuclear power and be real suspicious about it.

Bush's handlers: Then we'll threaten military action.

Ahmadinejad: This will cause me to act even creepier.

Bush's handlers: But how to keep the investors from getting nervous....hmmm...

Ahmadinejad: I have an idea....

The Fight to be the Sandbox King

Photo by photoluna25.

The US and Israel still seem very interested in attacking Iran to keep them from having nuclear weapons. Most of the debate around this concerns whether Iran is using its nuclear technology to create harmless power or to create weapons. Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't understand how the US and Israel can be complaining about anybody having nuclear weapons. These two countries have nuclear weapons in fantastical numbers. I might feel a little less confused about this if anyone could show me an instance where either country justified this hypocrisy, even if their justification makes no sense. But I guess since the US invaded Iraq without any such justification, I really shouldn't get my hopes up.

Chaaaaanyway, Al Jazeera says:

This is while Iran insists that it is conducting its nuclear program under the regulations of the UN nuclear watchdog and insists that its program is aimed at generating electricity for a growing population.

Israel, believed to be the sole possessor of 'at least 150 nuclear warheads' in the Middle East, seeks to persuade US President George W. Bush to halt Iran's nuclear program by military rather than diplomatic means before the end of his term in office.